Super Bowl Betting Tips & Advice
We cannot stress this enough, as even veteran gamblers have made the mistake of ruining a successful season by over betting the Super Bowl, or worse yet, have chased their losses from a poor season by betting this game beyond their means.
In the entre scheme of things, the Super Bowl is just another game that you should bet for the same amount as you would bet a regular season game with a similar edge. And if you find no edge, then you are better off passing than forcing an unwarranted play, especially with the Super Bowl having so many prop bets available where you can actually find a legitimate edge.
Thus our steps for betting the Super Bowl are no different than betting an Arizona vs. San Francisco game in October, so the following tips can be applied to any game at any time.
Here are five basic steps to handicapping the Super Bowl:
– Compare the game line to a reliable set of power ratings:
Some people like to use homegrown ratings, but one popular set of readily available ratings for NFL are the Sagarin Ratings, which rate Green Bay two points better then Pittsburgh on a neutral field; a number that lines up perfectly with the current line.
– Compare the total to the average scores for the entire year for each team:
If you combine the regular season and the post-season, Green Bay games are averaging 40.5 points this season while Pittsburgh games are averaging 39.2 points. Both of those figures are considerably less than the posted total of 44, so the first indication is that the ‘under’ has value.
– Compare the strengths and weaknesses of each offense to the strengths and weaknesses of each opposing defense and adjust spread and/or total accordingly:
In this case, Pittsburgh has the best rushing defense in football, while Green Bay is strong against the pass but vulnerable to the run. This should mean that the Packers should go back to their pass-happy offense they employed earlier in the season while the Steelers will probably run the ball a lot, which they like to do anyway. It would seem that this would affect the total slightly upwards, as the Steelers will play their usual game but the Packers will throw more passes than usual.
– Look for other factors such as motivation, injuries and weather:
Now motivation is obviously a non-factor in the Super Bowl, as it is more intended for letdown and look-ahead spots during the season. There is a key injury here with the Steelers being without their pro bowl center in Maurkice Pouncey, which could mean more pressure on Ben Roethlisberger. Weather should not be an issue this week, but that should also mean an improved performance from Aaron Rodgers after he struggled in cold conditions in Chicago.
– After visualizing how the game will play out, examine peripheral bets such as halves, quarters and props:
Given what was already discussed, it makes sense to look for ‘over’ rushing props for Pittsburgh and ‘under’ rushing props for Green Bay, and just the opposite in passing props.