Super Bowl XLVI is now set and it will be the top seeded New England Patriots out of the AFC taking on the fourth seeded New York Giants out of the NFC.
So why are the Patriots such small (-3) favorites? Can part of the reason be that the NFC is the better of the two conferences?
Not only does that appear to be the case this season but the Packers’ win last season makes the NFC a lucrative 7-3, 70.0 percent against the spread in the last 10 Super Bowls! Yes, the Patriots have been to four Super Bowls over this span but they are 0-3 ATS since winning their first Super Bowl vs. the Rams in 2002, failing to cover in wins vs. Philadelphia and Carolina and losing outright to these Giants.
ODDS: OPEN: PATRIOTS -3.5 | CURRENT: PATRIOTS -3 | O/U: 55
Trends Favoring the NY Giants:
Furthermore, for those of you looking to play the Giants on the money line, the lower seeds are 7-2 straight up in those games. The only straight up losers were Carolina vs. the Patriots in 2004 and Arizona vs. Pittsburgh in 2009, but both of those dogs obviously covered.
Also, keep in mind that the Giants were underdogs in each of their last two wins, first winning at Green Bay and then winning at San Francisco. Well, in the last 10 years, four teams have made the Super Bowl coming off of back-to-back upset wins and those teams went a perfect 4-0 ATS in the biggest game of all!
What about the difference in the seedings between the two combatants this year you may ask? Well believe it or not, the Giants have recent history on their side there too. If we ignore Super Bowl XLIV between the Colts and Saints two years ago, which was the only time in the last 10 years that the two top seeds opposed each other, the lower seeded teams have gone 8-1 ATS!
Patriots vs. Giants 2012 Super Bowl Betting:
- Patriots vs. Giants Expert Picks: CLICK HERE
- Patriots vs. Giants Player Prop Bets: CLICK HERE
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Over-Under Super Bowl Betting Trends:
If you are looking to play the total in the Big Game, the ‘over’ and ‘under’ is split 5-5 the last 10 years, but what makes this game different is the very high posted total of 55½. You see, despite the total split since 2002, the average combined total score of those 10 games has been 47.4 points. Only three of the last 10 Super Bowls have exceeded 55 points, meaning the ‘under’ would be 7-3 vs. this year’s posted total.
Other viable options this year due to the high total are segmented total plays for the first half and the first quarter:
- The ‘under’ is 6-4 in the first half the last 10 years, but the posted first half total of 28 this season is higher than any first half total the last 10 years! The ‘under’ for the first half would be 8-2 vs. this year’s number, although the second ‘over’ did come last season when the Packers and Steelers combined for 31 first half points.
- As for the first quarter, the ‘under’ is 7-2-1 since 2002, again with the second ‘over’ coming last season with 14 points scored in the initial stanza. The posted total for the first quarter this year is 10½, and the ‘under’ would be 8-2 the last 10 seasons vs. this year’s number.
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