5 Under The Radar Pitchers To Bet On In 2011

Now that the 2011 Major League Baseball Betting season has arrived, it seems like the perfect time to zone in on some underrated pitchers that we feel will pitch much better than the odds offered on them this season.

As usual, this list will NOT include proven studs such as Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee or Chris Carpenter, as those great hurlers are generally overvalued. That is contrary to what we are looking for with these pitchers, which is value.

Chris Narveson (Brewers): Narveson was awful in the first half last season, but he showed after the All-Star break why the Brewers are so high on him. He posted a 3.89 ERA and a terrific 1.17 WHIP through 14 starts over the second half while limiting opponents to a .231 batting average, and he had 66 strikeouts as opposed to just 24 walks in 81 innings after the break as well. That is the Narveson we expect from start to finish this season, and he could be a major surprise with the Milwaukee offense helping him snag a number of wins.

John Danks (White Sox): It is surprising that Danks is not better known than he is, as he pitches in a major market. In the last three seasons, he has posted ERAs of 3.72, 3.77 and 3.32 respectively and WHIPs of 1.22 1.28 and 1.23 respectively. He also had a career high in strikeouts last season with 162, and he had a better than 2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio with 70 walks. Perhaps people are turned off by his 40-31 record in those three years, but Danks should get more run support this year with the addition of Adam Dunn.

Also see: 2011 World Series Odds & Vegas MLB Expert Picks

R.A. Dickey (Mets): Dickey seemingly came out of nowhere last season to go 11-9 with a fantastic 2.84 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 174.1 innings. Some may consider Dickey a flash in the pan, but we disagree because the keys to his success were that his knuckleball makes him unique nowadays. He had an exceptional ground ball/fly ball ratio and he had great control for a knuckleballer. He allowed only 13 home runs due to his heavy ball and he issued just 42 walks. Those traits do not disappear overnight, so we are looking for more good things from Dickey in 2011.

Jaime Garcia (Cardinals): Garcia was a godsend in the Cardinals rotation last season, and the key thing is that he is just 24 years old, so he has enormous potential. Garcia was shut down in mid-September after tossing 163.1 innings, and we think that was a wise move as we are looking for more big things this year. Garcia finished 13-8 in 2010 with a 2.70 ERA, and he had 132 strikeouts vs. 64 walks for a better than 2:1 ratio while surrendering a lowly nine home runs.

Ricky Nolasco (Marlins): The Marlins seem to always have good young pitching, and Nolasco fits that description quite well. You may not have noticed, but Nolasco has amassed 27 wins in the last two years. His strength has been his control, as the righty issued just 33 walks through 157.2 total innings of work last season with 147 strikeouts. Nolasco has a very good career WHIP of 1.26 in 723.1 innings mainly due to that control, and he is now the Marlins’ second starter after stud ace Josh Johnson.

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MLB Betting Tips: Back The White Sox, Marlins, Twins This Season

The 2011 Major League Baseball Betting season has begun, so this is the perfect time to take a look at three teams that we feel are undervalued and will thus be nice bets most of the year.

Keep in mind that these are not the best teams in baseball, as teams like the Phillies, Red Sox and Yankees will undoubtedly be overvalued most of the time. Rather, these are three teams that tend to fly under the radar and offer good value for those partaking in the daily grind of betting on the Boys of Summer.

Chicago White Sox: The White Sox can score a lot of runs and they have a nice starting pitching staff. As long as they stay healthy and Matt Thornton can adapt to his role as closer in place of the departed Bobby Jenks, who was erratic last season anyway, then Chicago will win many more than they lose and contend for the American League Central title.

Paul Konerko batted .312 last season with 39 home runs and 111 RBI with very little protection in the lineup after Carlos Quentin got hurt. Well, the Sox brought in one of the most feared hitters in baseball in Adam Dunn, who has amazingly averaged 40 homers and 100 RBI over the last seven years. The duo of Dunn and Konerko as well as a healthy Quentin should ensure that this team will not have many offensive slumps this season.

Then there is the pitching staff that has one of the best quartet of starters in baseball right now in Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, John Danks and Gavin Floyd, and that staff will only get better when Jake Peavy is ready to return.

Also see: 2011 World Series Odds & Vegas MLB Expert Picks

Florida Marlins: They may not be household names with the possible exception of Josh Jonson, but the Marlins young top three starters, Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez were all great last season and all give the Marlins a chance to win on any given night.

If another youngster on the offensive end in Mike Stanton can live up to his billing and help offset the power numbers lost with the defection of Dan Uggla to the division rival Braves, the Marlins will surprise a lot of people this season. Stanton certainly looked like the real deal last year when hitting 20 home runs in 100 games, and he is projected to be the clean up hitter this season, where batting behind Hanley Ramirez can only help.

Minnesota Twins: The Twins are almost always one of the least appreciated teams in baseball, and such was the case again last season when they went 94-68 with very few people giving notice. This is because Minnesota is better known for its post-season failures than for its fine regular seasons, but that is just fine with us because they are often undervalued during the year.

Remember also that they just missed having the best record n the American League last year without Justin Morneau for the second half of the year. Morneau is back and healthy now and closer Joe Nathan is also back as the closer after missing last season following Tommy John surgery. Neither of those two has had any setbacks so far, so look for another fine season put forth by the Twinkies.

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MLB Betting: Top 5 Teams Providing Highest ROI for Baseball Bettors

Expert Baseball PicksOdds to win 2010 World Series

With every club having 30+ games under their belts in the 2010 MLB betting season, baseball bettors have a more definitive view as to what each respective team is all about. The following list entails the biggest $$$-makers of the season to date.

1. Washington Nationals (19-15, +$1293) Having lost 100+ games each of the last two seasons, the Nationals strong start to their 2010 baseball betting campaign has come as quite the surprise. Last season, this club didn’t win its 18th game until June 17th. However this year, manager Jim Riggleman’s club sits tied for second place in the NL East 2.5-games in back of the Philadelphia Phillies. They don’t do anything exceptionally well evidenced by them being ranked in the bottom third of the league in RPG (4.18), team ERA (4.46), quality starts (15), and errors (25). They do however boast a tremendous back end of the bullpen with Tyler Clippard and (7-1) and closer Matt Capps (14 saves). The Nationals have proven to be very resilient going a $$$-making 12-3 SU (+$1376) when playing off a loss this season.

2. San Diego Padres (20-12, +$940) The Padres and their atrocious road uniforms are back in the MLB betting spotlight after winning a total of 138 games the L/2 seasons. Get used to it folks as this club is for real, and it will hang around in the NL West as long as the Giants continue failing to hit and the Dodgers starting staff continues to struggle. The offense is far from impressive with a team batting average of .243 (#24), but when it manages to get someone on base, the Padres waste no time trying to advance as they rank 1st in the league with 40 stolen bases. What’s mainly gotten the job done for SD is its pitching staff (#2 with a 2.77 ERA); the bullpen has allowed just 33 ER’s through 108 total innings of work. Manager Bud Black’s club has been money in the second game of a series winning 22 of the L/27 times.

3. Tampa Bay Rays (23-10, +$793) With manager Joe Maddon’s Rays boasting the best record in all of baseball heading into Wednesday night’s game in Anaheim, it’s only fitting that it ranks amongst the league’s most profitable teams to back. What’s been most impressive however has been this club’s ability to win ball games on the road as it’s played 18 away from Tropicana Field and stands 14-4 overall (+$1013). Offensively, there isn’t a unit better than Tampa’s whose plated an average of 5.61 RPG. It also gets the job done on the base paths already swiping 31 bases overall. If having the league’s top ranked offensive attack isn’t enough, the Rays also boast one of the premiere pitching staffs around having already churned out 23 quality starts (#2). The Rays have dominated sub .500 opponents going 15-4 on the year (+$800).

4. Toronto Blue Jays (20-16, +742) Many had the Blue Jays pegged as one of the bottom feeders in the AL East at the onset of the season, but manager Cito Gaston’s club has battled to become one of just six teams to have amassed 20 wins or more to date. Like Tampa Bay, the Jays have been road warriors going 13-6 overall and putting $1000+ profit in their MLB betting backers pockets. Offensively, the BJ’s swing big sticks as they lead the league in HR’s (52) and rank 11th scoring an average of 4.75 RPG. Pitching is not a strength as the unit ranks 18th overall (4.24 ERA) and the bullpen ranks 20th (4.24 ERA) allowing 48 ER’s in 102 total IP. The Blue Jays have upped the ante against +.500 clubs winning 12 of 15 overall.

5. New York Yankees (21-11, +$616) The defending champs have picked right back up where they left off a year ago by taking it to their opponents night in and night out. In its 11 series played to date, the Yankees have dropped two of them most recently falling in the first two games of their current series with the Tigers. The offense ranks in the top five in RPG (5.52), batting average (.276), OPS (.819), and home runs (41); it also ranks 8th with 27 stolen bases. The club’s not hurting in the pitching department either as it ranks 7th in ERA (3.57) and 5th in WHIP (1.25). The bullpen ranks 12th with a 3.68 unit ERA and has allowed just 32 ER’s through 78.1 IP. New York’s made a mint for its MLB betting backers against righties going 14-4 to date (+$820).

MLB Betting: Starting Pitchers To Fade

Odds to win World SeriesExpert Baseball Betting Picks

Even though starting pitcher’s like Kyle Davies, Ubaldo Jimenez, Livan Hernandez, Andy Pettitte, and Francisco Liriano have been lights out for their baseball betting backers to start the year, there’s always guys on the opposite end of the totem pole coming up far short of expectations. Here’s a look at some of baseball’s worst $$$ pitchers to kick off the 2010 MLB betting season.
Jeremy Guthrie (0-6, -$600) While Guthrie has been far from terrible to start the year, he’s gotten absolutely no support from his offense in his six 2010 starts. Only an average of 7.17 runs per game have been put on the board in his outings to date, but unfortunately, the Orioles have managed an average of just 2.33 RPG in those outings. In short, Guthrie is just one of many tough-luck losers in the Orioles starting rotation as four of the starting five sport ERA’s of 4.78 and below. In the rough and tugged AL East, that’s not too shabby. He’s been at his best on the road allowing just 25 hits and 11 ER’s through 26 IP (3.81 ERA), so maybe he can earn his first win of the season at Target Field later in the week.
Joe Saunders (1-5, -$541) After going 16-7 with a 4.60 ERA and being one of baseball’s biggest $$$-makers a short season ago, lefty Joe Saunders has gotten off to a nightmarish start to his 2010 campaign. The Angels have won just one of his six overall starts, and his stat line is nauseating to say the least. He owns a 7.04 ERA & 1.79 WHIP striking out 13 while issuing 14 free passes. He’s allowed 41 hits and 26 runs through just 30.2 total IP. His lone victory was a beauty at Toronto where he tossed eight innings of two-run ball, but he’s surrendered four or more ER’s in four of his other six starts. Maybe the weak hitting Mariners will get him back on track in his next start.
Kenshin Kawakami (0-5, -$536) Since taking his game over to the state’s and becoming a member of the Braves, Kawakami has had to deal with a lack of run support. That has been the case once again in the 2010 MLB betting season as the Japanese import has received just 1.60 runs of support in his five overall starts. His numbers aren’t terrible (5.47 ERA, 1.48 WHIP), but he hasn’t been durable only making it through the sixth inning in two of his starts. His day (3.00 ERA)/night (6.20 ERA) splits show a huge disparity. Though he’s had just one start under the sun, he’s been lit up at night. So, if the value calls to back Kawakami down the road, keep your fingers crossed and hope it’s a day start.
Felipe Paulino (0-5, -$511) Now in his second full season as a MLB hurler, Paulino hasn’t gotten off to the start manager Brad Mills would like to see. He’s 0-4 overall and carries a lofty 5.53 ERA. For an Astros team that’s struggled considerably at the plate (#30 at 2.81 RPG), they’re almost up against it every time he takes to the bump considering he’s allowing nearly twice the amount of runs they’ve averaged scoring on the year. While he throws smoke (23 K’s), he’s proven to be wild walking 18 batters through just 27.2 total innings of work. He’s been better at home, but not by much. Until this youngster starts to pitch and not just throw, he remains in fade mode.
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5 reasons why the Colorado Rockies will win the National League Pennant in 2010


Baseball Betting Strategy Tips – Baseball Betting Picks

1. The Rockies are for real

Many viewed the Colorado Rockies as a one-hit wonder after the club came out of nowhere in September of the 2007 campaign to begin an improbable run to the World Series. In the previous 14 years of the franchise, Colorado had never won more than 83 games in a single-season. The 2008 Rockies promptly regressed back to a 74-88 record. However, Colorado was able to return to the postseason in 2009. With two playoff trips in the last three years, the Rockies have some credibility to work with heading into 2010.

2. Dodgers dysfunction

Colorado’s easiest path to the World Series is by winning the 2010 NL West title. While the Los Angeles Dodgers have won the last two NL West crowns, the franchise and team have some issues to deal with heading into this year. The owners of the club are involved in a messy divorce proceeding. Because of this, the finances of the team have been restrained during the winter and spring heading into 2010. The Dodgers failed to re-sign veteran left-hander Randy Wolf. This has left the rotation a little thin heading into this year. Also, Manny Ramirez is heading into a free agent year. He proved to be a major distraction in Boston two years ago under similar circumstances.

3. Jim Tracy

While the Rockies won the pennant in 2007 under manager Clint Hurdle, he struggled to keep Colorado’s momentum going forward. After 2008’s struggles, the Rockies started slowly again last season. With an 18-28 record after 46 games, Colorado axed Hurdle. He was replaced by veteran MLB skipper Jim Tracy. His style was a little more detailed than Hurdle’s laid-back approach. The Rockies caught fire to post a 74-42 record the rest of the way. Tracy should be able to keep Colorado’s focus on the right track in his first full season as manager of the squad.

4. Offensive thunder

Colorado’s offensive depth puts constant pressure on opposing pitching staffs. Half of the club’s everyday lineup had 23 or more homers a year ago. In addition, longtime franchise player Todd Helton (15 HR’s, 86 RBI’s, .325 AVG. in 2009) is still a big threat in the middle of the lineup to compliment the talented younger bats. Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki has emerged in recent seasons to become one of the top young players in all of baseball. He clubbed 32 homers in 2009 while driving in 92 runs.

5. The return of Jeff Francis

The Rockies managed to reach the postseason a year ago despite the absence of one of its top hurlers. A shoulder injury kept lefty Jeff Francis on the shelf for the entire 2009 campaign. He is healthy heading into 2010. From 2005-07, Francis averaged 15 wins per year for the club. At 29, he should have many good years ahead of him. With his return, a solid, young rotation should be able to compliment the club’s talented offense.

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MLB Betting: Young Pitchers to Watch in 2010

Odds to win Baseball World Series
The Major League Baseball season finally throws out the first pitch on Sunday night from Fenway Park, as the Boston Red Sox tangle with the New York Yankees. No one is going to be underestimating the value of either Boston’s RHP Josh Beckett or New York’s LHP CC Sabathia, but here at BetVega, we’ve assembled a list of the pitchers that you need to keep an eye on that you may be able to get some nice prices on at the outset of the MLB betting campaign.


Wade Davis, Tampa Bay Rays: Unfortunately for Davis, the value on the Rays really went by the boards after the phenomenal 2008 season. However, after proving that it belongs in the discussion with the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East, Tampa Bay will have consistent odds this year.

However, Davis is really the one totally unknown commodity on this staff.

Last season, Jeff Niemann came out and won 14 games for the Rays to lead the squad. He was considered one of the top pitching prospects in the organization at the time that he came to the majors. Davis was a higher rated kiddy in Tampa Bay’s stacked farm system. In limited action last year, Davis went 2-2 with a 3.72 ERA, including pitching a complete game shutout at Baltimore in September.

Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins: At 27 years old, Nolasco really isn’t a kid anymore, especially by Florida’s standards, but if the oddsmakers are just paying attention to his full season numbers from a year ago (13-9, 5.06 ERA), you may be able to get some real value on him, particularly at the start of the year.

Nolasco opened up last season in awful shape, as he was optioned to the minors before the summer was even in full swing. However, he came back with vengeance in the second half of the year, going 7-2 with a 4.39 ERA and averaging 7.0 strikeouts per start. He’s a power pitcher that has pinpoint control and rarely walks batters, and with the big park in Florida to work with, odds have it that his ERA will come soaring down in a hurry.

Although once he catches fire, his value will disappear, so be sure to jump on him early!

Luke Hochevar, Kansas City Royals: Yeah, yeah, yeah. We know. Hochevar had a 6.55 ERA last year and has only gone 13-25 over his L/2 baseball betting seasons. So why are we promoting the #3 starter on the Royals?

For the first time in his career, Hochevar has a competent catcher behind the plate calling games for him in veteran C Jason Kendall, and his lineup should be able to help him out. Hochevar has shown some signs of brilliance in the past, most notably in his complete game shutout of the White Sox on September 18th of last season. He was the #1 pick in the 2006 draft, and it’s high time that he starts to pitch more like his fellow high draft pick and teammate Zack Greinke and less like a man that belongs pitching in AAA for his entire career.

Don’t be shocked to see him cash a lot of +170 tickets early on in the season.

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Late Season Baseball Betting Tips

With the baseball season winding down, I thought it to be appropriate to offer some critical advice on how to approach the last two months of the season. Handicapping baseball toward the end of the season can be tricky but if you follow these guidelines you can pad your bankroll for the rest of the football betting season.

Bet teams that are still in the race:

The most important piece of advice I can give to bettors who are wagering in the latter stages of the baseball season is to bet on teams that still have something to play for. It’s common sense, that if teams are still fighting for their playoff lives, they are going to bring their A game day in and day out. One of the biggest components of sports handicapping is finding out which teams are going to be motivated to win. Motivation is one of the most critical components in sports because it’s a fact that teams who are dying to win have a better shot at doing so.

Stay away from teams who are resting players:

Towards the end of the season, teams who have large leads in their division are likely to rest players. You have to do your research to find out when teams are going to rest key players. You don’t want your money on a team who has nothing to play for and is simply getting ready or the playoffs.

Bet teams that are peaking late:

Some teams that may not even be in the playoff race may still peak towards the end of the season. You want your money on teams that are playing well and who are showing that they are not packing it in for the rest of the year. The biggest indicator of whether or not a team is still playing to win is by looking at their most recent results. Teams that are winning and doing well over their last ten games are teams to take a serious look at. Also, some clubs find ways to put it all together toward the end of the year and are peaking at the right time. If you can pinpoint these teams, you can find the right situations to place a wager.

Stay away from teams who are calling up minor leaguers:

Every year teams that have no chance at the playoffs want to take a look at the talent they have in the minors. They will call up starting pitchers and betting on rookie starting pitchers can be a major pitfall for baseball betting enthusiasts. Some teams will also bring up big time prospects at other positions to give them a look at the major league level. Avoid betting these teams at all costs because who wants to bet on a team who is playing minor league talent?

Why You Should Be Betting Baseball


You Need To Bet MLB

Most recreational sports bettors choose to take the summer off and not bet baseball before the football season starts. It is well documented by sports books offshore and in Las Vegas that baseball is by far the least bet upon sport of the three major sports: football, basketball, and baseball. I have also talked with odds makers who openly stated that they are just happy to break even in baseball because of the little action they receive. The big money rolls in during the football and basketball seasons.

One of the biggest reasons why novice gamblers shy away from baseball is because they don’t understand the lines. However, in all actuality it’s really not that difficult to understand. Let’s say the Dodgers are playing the San Diego Padres and the Dodgers have been listed as -150 favorites. What that means is that if you were to bet the Dodgers, you would have to risk $1.50 for every $1.00 you want to win. So if you want to win $100, you would risk $150. If you were to bet, the Padres, depending on your sports book, you would have a line of either +130 or +140. Some books offer a 10 cent differential for underdogs and some offer a 20 cent differential. It’s important for you to find a book that offers a dime line which is a ten cent differential when betting an underdog. If you got the dime line on the Padres you would win $1.40 for each $1.00 risked. Pretty simple right?

Many pros believe that in the summer months, you can really catch the bookies off guard because they are not overly concerned with turning a profit. They simply fall asleep. Since bookmakers aren’t looking to rake in profits during baseball, there are many MLB betting opportunities that can arise for the astute gambler. If you can follow all of the teams and pitchers closely, you can find mistakes made by the odds makers.

Betting baseball is a time consuming process because there are so many factors that go into the game. However, hard work can really pay off. There are a number of betting opportunities each day in baseball and when you add in the fact that the season is seven months long, you can see why there are bound to be mistakes made by the odds makers. Injuries, hot and cold streaks, pitching mismatches are constantly changing so if you follow the game closely, you can find great spots to put your money down.

For me, baseball is my biggest money maker due to the high volume of games and the bookmakers’ apathy toward the sport. The other thing that makes baseball so profitable is the fact that there is no point spread. I only have to pick the winner of the game unless I bet the run line. It takes hard work but by following everything I possibly can and studying the statistics thoroughly, I am able to consistently find discrepancies in the line. It’s a long season and if you are able to stay on top of what’s going on, baseball is a game that can be beat. If you’re not betting baseball outside of the World Series, you could be missing out on a huge opportunity to build a bankroll for football season.