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Alabama-Notre Dame Line, Expert Spread Picks, BCS Prediction

Well here we are at the BCS Championship Game, where the only unbeaten team in College Football this season the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) will take on the SEC Champion Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1), which has a loss and two narrow wins in its last four games vs. FBS opponents after looking like easily the best team in the country earlier in the year.
 

The bookmakers apparently still believe that as Alabama is a double-digit -10 favorite to repeat as national champions, with the total on this contest set at 42.


ALABAMA – NOTRE DAME BCS BOWL BETTING LINE:


OPEN: ALABAMA -8.5 | CURRENT: ALABAMA -10 | O/U: 42



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1. Why Alabama will cover the spread: Alabama will cover this spread if it does not allow any big passing plays vs. the mobile Notre Dame quarterback Everett Golson, and a correlated secondary key would be forcing Golson to stay in the pocket, where he seems to be less effective than when he is rolling out. The statistics say that Alabama ranks sixth in the country in passing defense at 166.2 yards per game while allowing only 6.0 yards per pass attempt, but that did not prevent Aaron Murray of Georgia, Johnny Manziel of Texas A&M or even Zach Mettenberger of LSU from having big games against this passing defense in the final weeks of the year.

 

ALABAMA vs. NOTRE DAME EXPERT PICKS

2. Why Notre Dame will cover the spread: Notre Dame will cover the spread if it can at least slow down Alabama’s two-headed running back monster of Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon, a duo that combined for 334 rushing yards in the 32-28 win over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. The Irish do have one of the best front sevens in the country and they finished the regular year fourth in the nation in rushing defense at 92.4 yards per game on just 3.2 yards per carry, so it will all come down to who proves to be superior in the scrimmage war between that great Notre Dame front seven and the fantastic Alabama offensive line.

Sure Alabama quarterback A.J. McCarron had an incredibly efficient passing season, but he is a system quarterback that relies in the running game to help him be successful, so containing the run is paramount for the Irish.

 

ALABAMA vs. NOTRE DAME – Who is the public betting on?


3. Total Talk: This game pits the top two defenses in the country in terms of scoring defense, as the SEC Championship dropped Alabama to second in the country allowing 10.7 points per game, while Notre Dame led the nation at 10.3 points. So naturally we lean to the…’over’? If the last seven years taught us anything, it is that the SEC wins championships because it is simply faster and stronger than all the other conferences.

All of Alabama’s struggles have come inside the SEC, and now that it is out of conference, look for the offensive line to overpower the Irish front like no other team has all year, and we also like the faster Alabama defense to create some offense via turnovers and/or field position. We like Alabama to open up a big lead and for maybe the Irish to score a garbage late touchdown to help the ‘over’.

 

4. Betting Trends for Notre Dame/Alabama: Alabama is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 non-conference games including 11-1 ATS when not favored by 30 points or more!



ALABAMA – NOTRE DAME BCS CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTION:

Alabama 31 – Notre Dame 17






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Alabama vs. LSU Point Spread Preview, Expert Picks, BCS Championship Score Prediction 2012

Lovers of high-scoring games and haters of the SEC won’t like it, but the BCS National Championship Game is a rematch between the top ranked LSU Tigers and the second ranked Alabama Crimson Tide, as this marks the first time in BCS history that two teams from the same conference are meeting for the championship.

The two defenses dominated in the regular season meeting in Tuscaloosa, as LSU won it 9-6 in overtime in a battle of field goals.

These teams are perceived so evenly that the line on this game is a Pick, with the total set at 40.





ODDS: OPEN: LSU -1 | CURRENT: BAMA -1 | O/U: 39


1. Why LSU will cover the spread: LSU will cover the spread if it contains Alabama running back Trent Richardson as well as it did in the first meeting. Richardson ran for 89 yards, but he averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry and obviously could not find the end zone, and this is someone who averaged 6.0 yards over the entire season with 20 touchdowns.

Another key to LSU covering is running the ball effectively, and they did succeed vs. the great Alabama defense the first go-around, rushing for 148 yards. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson rushed for 43 of them, and he figures to be effective again in the option.



LSU vs. ALABAMA Expert Picks | Who is the public betting on?



2. Why Alabama will cover the spread: Alabama will cover this spread if quarterback A.J. McCarron has some passing success early in the game. In fact, it may be a great strategy to have McCarron come out throwing on the first drive, if for no other reason, to loosen up the LSU defense in order for Richardson to find some holes later that were not there in the regular season meeting.

Another key to an Alabama cover is to get LSU into third-and-long situations when the Tide are on defense. This is especially true when Jefferson is in the game, as he is more prone to committing turnovers in pressure situations than the other LSU quarterback Jarrett Lee, who is a better game manager. That being said, Lee did throw two interceptions on only seven pass attempts in the first meeting.




3. Total Talk: We were shocked when the regular season meeting between these teams had a total of 41, and we are just as shocked at this total of 40 in the rematch in light of the first result. No, we did not expect 9-6 the first time, but we did expect the two best defenses in the country to dominate the game, and nothing has happened to change that opinion for this game.

Just about the only risk we see to this ‘under’ is if Alabama Coach Nick Saban heeds our advice and allows McCarron to cut loose early, but history tells us that Saban will remain stubborn and continue to force-feed his horse the pigskin no matter how many times LSU stuffs him.



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4. Betting Trends for the game: LSU has earned its top spot by going 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. teams with winning records. Also, the ‘under’ is 14-3 in the last 17 Alabama games on artificial turf, as well as in the last 13 LSU games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards last game.



LSU-ALABAMA BCS Championship Prediction: LSU 20 – Alabama 13










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Auburn vs. Oregon Point Spread Preview, Picks, Score Prediction BCS Championship 2011

The BCS Championship Game on Monday, January 10th is a long anticipated matchup of unbeatens with two of the best offenses in the country, as the 13-0 Auburn Tigers from the SEC take on the 12-0 Oregon Ducks from the Pac-10.


This contest cannot be looked at like a typical SEC vs. Pac-10 game, as the SEC is clearly superior from top to bottom if that’s the case. Rather, as Stanford proved vs. Virginia Tech, the top of the Pac-10 can compete with anyone, and statistically at least, Oregon has slightly better numbers than Auburn this year; yet Auburn is the 2.5-point favorite.



Betting Key #1: Which of these defenses will make the most stops?

Oregon leads the country in both scoring offense (49.3 points per game) and in total offense (542.1 yards per contest), while Auburn is fourth in scoring (42.7) and seventh in total offense (498.8), so in a game where both teams figure to move the ball, the defense capable of making the most stops should have the advantage. Well, that also looks to be Oregon, as it actually ranked 12th in the nation in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game and allows only 3.5 yards per rush and 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Comparatively, Auburn is allowing 24.5 points per contest, and while it’s allowing an identical 3.5 yards per rush, the secondary has been exposed several times, surrendering 7.6 yards per pass.




Auburn vs. Oregon BCS Championship Game Betting:

- Auburn vs. Oregon BCS Point Spread: Auburn -1.5 points

- Auburn vs. Oregon BCS Over-Under: 72 points

- Auburn vs. Oregon BCS Expert Picks: CLICK HERE

- Auburn vs. Oregon BCS Player Prop Bets: CLICK HERE




Key #2: Can Oregon Quarterback Darron Thomas take advantage of a suspect Auburn secondary?

The Ducks have relied heavily on the running of LaMichael James and their other backs this season, and why not, as they rank second in rushing offense at 309.9 yards per game while averaging a whopping 6.4 yards per carry. The Auburn defense however is stout against the run and suspect against the pass, so Thomas will have to throw early to keep the Tigers defense honest, which should open up some running lanes later on. Thomas may not have thrown as much as some quarterbacks, but he passed for 2500 yards while averaging 7.8 yards per attempt, and he did have 28 touchdown passes and only seven interceptions.









Key #3: Can a top tier Pac-10 team beat a top tier SEC team?

Once you start talking about the top teams in each conference, the depth of the conferences as a whole basically becomes irrelevant. Remember that Oregon handed Stanford its only loss of the season by a convincing 52-31 score, and that is proof enough that the Ducks can beat any team in the country with their best effort.



AUBURN VS. OREGON BCS NATIONAL TITLE GAME SCORE PREDICTION:

While Auburn quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton is getting most of the publicity here, I am looking for Thomas to be the quarterback leading his team to victory. Newton will probably end up with better stats by game’s end, but I think Oregon has the far superior defense between these clubs. While Newton and Auburn will get its yards between the 20s, look for the Ducks to stiffen in the red zone. Meanwhile, look for the Oregon offense to put more pressure on a suspect Auburn defense than any other team has all year to ultimately prove to be the Tigers undoing.



Oregon 41 – Auburn 27




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