The Super Bowl usually has a very sharp line because it has to with such a humongous amount of money bet on the event, and Super Bowl XLVI between the New York Giants and the New England Patriots is no exception.
The good news though is that the Super Bowl also has more props available for it than any other game of the NFL season, and while the straight game lines are razor-sharp, there are many soft numbers in the props that can be exploited.
Here are some of our favorite props for Tom Brady in 2012 Super Bowl:
Total Completions – Tom Brady ‘over’ 25½: While we do feel that Brady will be under a lot of pressure from the Giants’ defensive line, we also think that will lead to more dump offs and quick throws on safer routes, so while there may not be many home run balls by the Patriots in this game, Brady should still pile up completions with these shorter passes.
We also think that this will be a close game and that it is entirely possible that New England can be trailing in the fourth quarter, so Brady should not stop throwing the ball in the final stanza. Even in his poor game vs. the Ravens in the AFC Championship, Brady still completed 22 passes and we think you can easily add four completions with a “normal” effort.
Longest Completion – Tom Brady ‘under’ 42½: As mentioned, Brady may not have the time in this game to throw the ball way downfield so we think that the only was this play loses is if a receiver breaks a tackle and eats up a ton of yardage after the catch. Sure, that is entirely possible but New England does not have the speediest receiving corps in the world and the Giants’ defense has not missed many tackles during the playoffs.
Total TD Passes – Tom Brady ‘over’ 2½: They may not be bombs, but Brady will throw a lot of passes in this game even closer to the goal line, so we fully expect at least three touchdown passes. Sure his favorite target – Rob Gronkowski – is limited, but that is where having a second big red zone target such as fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez comes in handy, so Brady will probably not miss a beat. Before getting shut out by the Ravens, Brady had 45 touchdown passes in his first 17 games and he threw for six touchdowns vs. Denver in the divisional round.
Patriots vs. Giants 2012 Super Bowl Betting:
- Patriots vs. Giants Expert Picks: CLICK HERE
- Patriots vs. Giants Player Prop Bets: CLICK HERE
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Total Rushing Attempts – Tom Brady ‘under’ 3 : Brady is a pure pocket passer that is more apt to go down for a sack if under great pressure than to take off running on his surgically repaired knee. Brady did average 2.75 rushing attempts per game during the season, but most of those games weren’t vs. a physical defense like this. Perhaps the biggest threat to this prop would be QB sneaks from inside the one, but look for Brady to pass for touchdowns before getting that close.
Will Tom Brady throw a 4th Quarter TD Pass? Yes (-115): As mentioned, we expect a close game in the fourth quarter, which may be all that is required for this ticket to cash.
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