The Kansas State Wildcats are one of the least respected teams in the country. This team is 8-2, including taking undefeated national title hopefuls Oklahoma State down to the wire in a 52-45 loss on the road in Stillwater two weeks ago before winning 53-50 in overtime vs. Texas A&M last week in a game where the Wildcats were inexplicably 5½-point home underdogs.
Texas is 6-3 and is coming off of a road loss to Missouri, the Longhorns have lost to the two best teams they have faced in Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and yet they have been installed as heavy (-9) favorites here with the total set at 53. We are not buying it and calling for an outright Wildcat upset.
BETTING ODDS: OPEN: Texas -9 | CURRENT: Texas -7.5 | O/U: 53
KSU-Texas Offenses: The Wildcats are generally a one-dimensional running team, as they are averaging 208.7 rushing yards per game and only 155.6 yards through the air. However, they have gotten increased production out of quarterback Collin Klein in recent weeks, and as a result, Kansas State has scored 98 points in two games. Klein completed 17 of 27 passes for 281 yards in the win over the Aggies last week while the rushing attack was held to 130 yards. If the Wildcats can get balanced production every week, this offense is capable of scoring on any team in the country.
The Longhorns have also become more of a running team this year, averaging 227.4 rushing yards but only 188.6 passing yards per contest, a far cry from the days of Colt McCoy. Now, this team cannot even settle on a starting quarterback, having gone through three of them starting with an ineffective Garrett Gilbert and followed by an equally ineffective rotation of Case McCoy and David Ash. If this team falls behind early vs. what has become more of a quick-strike Kansas State offense, the Longhorns should be primed for the taking as their quarterback situation makes them a poor come-from-behind team.
KSU-Texas Defenses: Now there is no question that Texas has the better defense, although we would like to add that the Texas defense is not as good as its numbers and the Kansas State defense is not as bad as its stats. The Longhorns are allowing 21.0 points and 313.8 total yards per game, allowing just 3.5 yards per rush and 5.7 yards per pass. With that said the defense has dominated lesser teams and came up empty vs. the two best teams on its schedule, allowing 55 points to Oklahoma on a neutral field and 38 points to Oklahoma State here at home. The Kansas State offense has been playing at the level of those two offenses the last two weeks.
The Wildcats are allowing 29.8 points and 410.7 points per game, but they have been fine vs. the run allowing 3.8 yards per carry and vulnerable vs. the pass surrendering 7.6 yards per pass attempt. As mentioned earlier though, Texas is having major quarterback issues, so if Kansas State can successfully stop the run, then that too should lead to an upset as we don’t trust the Texas passing game.
Kansas State vs. Texas Prediction: Frankly, Kansas State looks like one of the biggest overlays of the year!
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