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Week 16 Monday Night Point Spread: Minnesota Vikings -7.5, O/U 41

Monday will put Brett Favre and the 11-3 Minnesota Vikings back in the spotlight when they travel to Soldier Field to play the 5-9 Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football. Following the heated on the field exchange between Favre and head coach Childress over offensive autonomy and control, the Vikings will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss to Carolina. Minnesota is losers of 2 of 3 and Favre has shown glimpses of his age in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Chicago will have an upset on their mind, as outside of beating a division rival, Chicago has nothing to play for with two weeks remaining in the season.

Minnesota goes as Brett Farve goes. If Farve is unable to control and facilitate the offense, like in recent weeks, the Vikings will struggle. In his first 11 games, Farve had only thrown 3 interceptions. In his last 3 games, he has thrown 4 interceptions with the offense scoring 17 or fewer points in 2 of the 3 games. Aiding in his recent poor play has been the amount of hits Farve has taken in recent weeks. Farve has been sacked 9 times in the past 3 weeks and over the course of the season has been sacked the 6th most in the league at 31. Farve has always been the type to hold on to the ball a bit longer than he should in hopes of making something happen. However, at 40, the body cannot take the abuse like it did at 25 or 30. The Bears will attempt to expose the poor pass protection by adding more blitz packages into the mix hoping to ignite their 17th ranked pass rush. The Bears have more flexibility than most as their 8th ranked pass defense has been one of the few bright spots in their terrible season.

Brett Farve is not the only Viking to struggle in recent weeks. Adrian Peterson has not had a 100-yard rushing game in five games. He has averaged 41.0 rushing yards in the Vikings three losses and 101.1 yards in their 11 wins. The Bears and their 25th ranked rushing defense might seem like a reprieve but during the past 5 games, Peterson has failed to rush for over a 100 yards against the 13th, 25th, 18th, 3rd, and 26th ranked rushing defenses. Call it “over thinking” as Left Tackle Bryant McKinnie told reports about the offensive line play or just bad football, but either way, Peterson is not running the ball well in the last 5 weeks of the season.

Looking at their record, Minnesota has suffered all 3 of their losses on the road this year. Meanwhile, Chicago has been OK at home with their 4-3 record this season. At home, Chicago’s record is directly reflective of how well their quarterback plays. In Soldiers Filed, Jay Cutler is actually a decent quarterback, throwing 11 touchdowns to only 5 interceptions, with a QB rating of 85.7. On the road it’s literally a complete turnaround, 8 touchdowns and 20 interceptions, with QB ratings of 56.9. Outside of Cutler, everything else about the Bears is significantly worse on the road but thankfully for Bears fan, they are at home this week were they are just mediocre in most offensive categories.

If we can ignore just how bad Jay Cutler has been this season. If we take into account the fact that Minnesota has lost all their games on the road while the Bears play significantly better at home. As well as factoring in a slumping Minnesota running game combined with an aging and somewhat vulnerable Brett Favre, I like Chicago covering the 7.5 points at home.

The line currently has Minnesota as 7.5 point road favorites. This season Minnesota is 8-5-1 ATS and Chicago is 4-10 ATS. Minnesota is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago. Chicago is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

The total points for the games are currently listed at 41. Minnesota is 6-8 O/U this season while Chicago is 4-10 O/U. The total has gone UNDER in Minesota’s last 5 games and UNDER in 4 of their last 6 road games. Against Chicago, the total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 6 games. For Chicago, the total has gone the UNDER in their last 5 games and UNDER in 4 of their last 5 home games.

Vikings @ Bears Monday Night Pick:

Chicago in the cover but not in the win. A bad Minnesota team may be enough to beat the Bears at home but will not be enough to cover. I like the UNDER as well, neither team is playing good offensive football, that is to say that Minnesota’s offense will not be able to carry the game against the Bears defense this week.

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