Vikings-Panthers Point Spread – Week 15 Expert NFL Picks – #1 NFL Betting Sportsbook – NFL Public Bet %
On Sunday Night, the 11-2 Minnesota Vikings will travel to Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte North Carolina to play the 5-8 Panthers on NBC. Minnesota is currently 9 point road favorites with the toal points listed at 43. Minnesota having already clinched a playoff berth will be looking to take the NFC North division title with a win. Carolina really has nothing to play for this late in the season. Having already given away their 2010 first round pick to the 49ers and with John Fox’s future in doubt, this team is destined to be blown up entering next year. Pride is really all Carolina has left and having lost 3 of their last 4 games, this team looks to have mailed it in with 3 games remaining.
Minnesota has had little trouble dispatching of most of their lesser opponents this season. Their only two defeats this year have come on the road to Arizona and Pittsburgh. Carolina certainly falls into the category of “lesser opponents”. Inconsistent and often bad quarterback play has plagued them much of the season. Having lost Jack Delhomme to injury with a broken finger certainly was not a terrible thing as his 18 interceptions will not be missed. However, replacement Matt Moore is hardly an improvement. In two starts, the team is 1-1 with the offense failing to score more than 16 points in either game. Individually, Moore has thrown for an average of 179 yards per game with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. The lack of vertical game with Moore under center makes this team very predictable. Fox simply has no confidence in him to push the ball down field and instead must rely on the Williams and Stewart running back combo.
Carolina has done very few things well offensively this season. They certainly cannot throw the ball down field, they do not score many points, they do not put up yards in bunches, and they turn the ball over far too often. I guess this is a perfect reason as to why this team is 5-8. Where they have been successful is on the ground. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have formed one of the best backfield tandems in the league and lead this team in their 5th ranked rushing attack, averaging 150 yards per game. Both Williams and Stewart are having a fantastic season, averaging 5.3 and 4.6 yards per carry respectively, with each having 7 touchdowns and Williams just rushing over 1000 yards. The only problem for Carolina this week is the Minnesota defense is ranked 4th against the run, giving up an average of 86.8 yards per game. This has often translated too many third and long situations in which teams are only converting 34.2% of their chances, good for 3rd in the league. It is a formula that does not bode well for Carolina as Moore has yet to look comfortable taking the ball from center and is simply not good enough to lead this team to a victory or even keep it close, especially playing against the top ranked pass rush at 3.1 sacks per game.
John Fox is going to try to play the field position game with Minnesota. He will be forced to lean on his defense to create short field for his offense to work with. Carolina, ranking 16th in total yards allowed, 19th in points allowed, and 26th against the run is in no way capable of slowing down the Adrian Peterson lead offense. Minnesota can be equally as predictable as Carolina in how they run their offense. The only difference is that Minnesota has a top 5 defense behind them and Brett Favre still has enough to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers. Ranking 2nd in points scored this season, Minnesota uses a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson along with timely and smart quarterback play of Brett Favre to move the ball and score. His MVP caliber season is not leading an overly impressive Minnesota offense, ranking 11th in the league in the running game and 10th in the league in the passing game. They play well behind their 6th ranked defense and when given the chance, they put the ball in the end zone with a 60% red zone scoring this season.
The line currently has Minnesota favored by 9 points. This season Minnesota is 8-4-1 ATS. Minnesota is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games and 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road. Carolina is 6-7 ATS this season. Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games but 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home.
The Over-Under for the game is 43 points. Minnesota is 6-7 O/U and Carolina is 5-8 O/U this season. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 5 games. In head to head matchups, the total has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 5 games. For Carolina, The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina’s last 6 games
Vikings @ Panthers Sunday Night Pick: Minnesota with the easy cover. Carolina does not have enough to keep pace with Minnesota offense over 4 quarters. The one area that Carolina does well, running the ball, Minnesota matches with Adrian Peterson. Take the UNDER on the points this week. The trends certainly speaks to taking the UNDER, but more importantly, Matt Moore will not be able to lead this team to any more than 10 points. Minnesota will get there 24-27 points and win in blow out fashion, covering the spread and playing the UNDER.
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