Week 14 NFL Upset Pick of the Week: Dolphins over Jaguars

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Miami will make the short trip to the northern part of the Sunshine State for a critical AFC matchup against Jacksonville. The Jaguars are a 2.5-point favorite in a game that is vital to each club’s playoff hopes. While the home team has won its last five contests in Jacksonville, the Dolphins are in a good position to get a significant win on Sunday.

1.) Miami’s momentum

After being the surprise team of the NFL a year ago, Miami stumbled to an 0-3 start this season. Despite losing QB Chad Pennington and RB Ronnie Brown to injuries during the season, the Dolphins have rallied to win six if its last nine games to get into a solid position to reach the playoffs entering the final quarter of the regular season.

2.) Ricky Williams

While the loss of Brown has been a major blow, the Dolphins have the luxury of having two outstanding runners in its backfield. Williams has stepped up to rank 10th in the NFL in rushing with 867 yards. He has rushed for more than 100 yards in three of the last four weeks. On the season, he is averaging five yards per carry with nine touchdown runs. As a team, Miami is fourth in the league in rushing offense.

3.) Chad Henne

There were plenty of concerns in Miami after Pennington was lost for the season at San Diego in week 3. The Dolphins had to turn to second-year QB Chad Henne for this first career start in week 4 against Buffalo. While Henne has lacked consistency at times, he has managed to post a 6-3 record in the starting role. He stepped in last week’s comeback win over New England to throw for a career-high 335 yards. The coaching staff had enough confidence in Henne to allow him to attempt 52 passes against the Patriots.

4.) Fan apathy in Jacksonville

Despite its home winning streak, Jacksonville hasn’t come close to selling out a home game this season. There were only 42,000 fans on hand for last week’s important divisional game against Houston. There is speculation that the franchise could soon end up in Los Angeles. With plenty of Dolphins fans scattered throughout the state of Florida, the game will have the feel of a neutral matchup on Sunday.

5.) A suspect Jaguars team

If the season ended today, Jacksonville would be a playoff team based on its 7-5 record. However, the Jaguars have played non-winning teams in its last ten games after beginning the year with defeats to the Colts and Cardinals. Jacksonville is a mediocre 22nd in the league in scoring defense while the club’s offense has also lacked consistency. While the Jaguars have feasted on a weak schedule, Miami has faced only four losing teams this season. The Dolphins appear to be the more battle-tested squad entering this key matchup. With a lot more big games under its belt in the last couple of years, Miami could be more adept at handling this critical contest.

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