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Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Carolina Panthers -3.5 

The Carolina Panthers will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday against the Detroit Lions.  They were embarrassed on National TV on Thursday last week in a 21-52 road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are playing as well as any team in the NFL right now.  They’ll be looking to show the kind of team they really are this week as that effort was an aberration based on the way the Panthers had played up to that point previously. 

The Panthers are still 6-3 on the season and right in the thick of the playoff race.  They have everything to play for the rest of the way, and I also like the fact that they have extra time to prepare for the Lions this week.  That’s because they did play last Thursday, giving them three more days off than the Lions.  That’s a hidden advantage here that I don’t think is being factored into the line. 

I went 4-1 in the NFL last week, but my lone loss was on the Lions +7 over the Bears.  I thought they would play with a sense of urgency in a must-win game, but they did not, and they were terrible the entire game.  They were thoroughly outplayed by the Bears.  Now, at 3-6 on the season and three games behind the Bears in the NFC North, I could see the Lions pack it in.  They realize they have nothing to play for the rest of the way. 

I should have seen it coming with the trade of Golden Tate to the Eagles.  Tate was Matthew Stafford’s security blanket, and without him he has looked lost.  The Lions have lost three in a row by 14 at home to the Seahawks, by 15 at the Vikings and by 12 at the Bears.  If that’s not the sign of a team struggling, then I don’t know what is. 

Tate was so important to Stafford because he could get the ball out quickly to him.  That helped mask the woeful offensive line in Detroit that simply hasn’t given Stafford any time to throw this season, especially in recent weeks.  As a result, this Detroit offense has been held to just 15.0 points per game the last three weeks.  It won’t get any easier against a very good Carolina defense this week. 

The Panthers look as good as they have offensively maybe ever this season, averaging 26.8 points per game.  And their defense is holding opponents to 17 yards per game below their season averages despite facing a brutal schedule of opposing offenses.  This Detroit offense will be one of the worst units the Panthers have faced all season, and they should have their way with them. 

Christian McCaffrey should have a huge game rushing against a Detroit defense that ranks 28th against the run, giving up 132.7 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  The Lions also rank 31st in passing yards per attempt (8.9) allowed this season.  Even Mitchell Trubisky torched them for 348 yards last week through the air.  They were without their top corner in Darius Slay in that game, and he could miss this game as well with a knee injury. 

Detroit is 2-15 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team that commits one or fewer turnovers per game in the second half of the season.  Ron Rivera is 9-1 ATS off a blowout road loss by 14 points or more as the coach of Carolina.  Rivera is 12-2 ATS after allowing 25 or more points in two consecutive games as the coach of the Panthers.  Look for an inspired, bounce-back effort from Carolina this week.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

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Utah State is a merciless offensive juggernaut  averaging 51 ppg in offensive production this season while allowing an average of 22.7 ppg. They are being asked to lay almost 4 TDS in this MWC road game vs the Colorado State Rams, but because of their lack of respect for opposing teams and their refusal to take their proverbial foot off the gas, Im betting they are a viable wager here to cover vs a side that allows an average of more than 38 ppg. 

HC Wells last 6 games as a 21.5 to 31 point favorite have seen his team average 53.5 ppg while allowing just 18.2 ppg, with the point differential coming in at 35.3 ppg for a perfect 6-0 ATS record. 

CFB Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (UTAH ST) - good rushing team - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 32-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Utah State to cover 

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Broncos/Chargers UNDER 47 

I like this UNDER in this division rivalry between the Broncos and Chargers Sunday.  The Chargers have gotten healthier on defense in recent weeks and it’s starting to show with their play on the field.  They have allowed 19 points or fewer in five consecutive games and an average of just 13.2 PPG in those five contests.  They should hold the Broncos in check.  This is a Denver offense that has scored 23 points or fewer in seven of their last eight games overall.  They just aren’t very good on that side of the ball this season.  But their defense is still very strong, and they should be able to slow down Philip Rivers and this Los Angeles offense.  The Broncos and Chargers have combined for 47 or fewer points in seven consecutive meetings.  With a total of 47 Sunday, this is an easy choice.  Give me the UNDER.

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1* Free Pick on Oregon -

Analysis will be posted shortly

3* on Vikings

Play - Miami Ohio (Game 305).

Edges - RedHawks: 13-5 ATS last 18 conference road games … Huskies: 1-5 ATS in this series … With the Hawks in need of two wins in their final two games to become bowl eligible, we recommend a 1* play on Miami Ohio.  Thank you and good luck as always. 

> >  Marc’s red-hot hand on the gridiron rolls on Thursday night with another College Football Crush Play in a double 100% ATS perfect winning situation.  Hurry, get it now - you’ll be glad you did! 

1* Free Play on North Texas -2½ -115

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #319 Indiana Hoosiers over Michigan Wolverines (4p.m., Saturday, November 17 FS1) We will take the points in this game as it is a classic situation where Michigan will be looking ahead to Ohio State the following week. Expect them to just go through the motions similar to what they did last week against Rutgers. Indiana needs to win one of their last two games to become bowl eligible and it will not happen this week but expect a good effort for preparing them for their season finale against Purdue the following Saturday. Michigan is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a game in which they scored more than 40 points the previous week. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend football card featuring top plays on Saturday and Sunday. This is going to be a monster weekend so sign-up now and let 47 years of handicapping experience work for you.

This is a Free #NCAAF play on the Syracuse Orange. The Notre Dame Irish have been cruising through a rather average schedule, and they are currently ranked #3 overall with their sights set on the College Football Playoffs. Standing in their way are the #13 ranked Syracuse Orange, who have lost two games by an average margin of 5.5 points. Their loss to Clemson by a score of 27-23 is more impressive than most of Notre Dame's wins. This a team that has already proved it can hang with the big boys, last year they handed Clemson it's only regular season loss. Senior quarterback Eric Dungey has been lighting it up with his arm and his legs. He's got a dozen rushing TDs and 690 rushing yards so far this season. The Orange have covered the spread in five straight non conference games, and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 against teams with a winning record. I'll take the points with Syracuse. Take CUSE. GL, 

Jesse Schule