1. Their own line movement on respective team’s chances at winning the Super Bowl.
2. Percentage of total dollars wagered versus the total betting handle for the 2020 Super Bowl.
3. Public betting percentage of the total number of betting tickets per NFL team to win the Super Bowl
Let’s start by looking at the percentage of total dollars vs. the total Super Bowl 54 Champion betting handle:
1. New England Patriots (+550): 10%
2. Kansas City Chiefs (+600): 9%
3. Chicago Bears (+1100): 8%
4. Cleveland Browns (+1500): 7%
5. Philadelphia Eagles (+1500): 6%
6. Indianapolis Colts (+1400): 5%
7. Dallas Cowboys (+1500): 5%
8. New Orleans Saints (+1000): 5%
9. Los Angeles Rams (+850): 4%
10. Green Bay Packers (+1500): 4%
Now let’s look at the percentage vs. total number of betting tickets:
1. Browns: 8%
2. Bears: 6%
3. Chiefs: 5%
4. Eagles: 5%
5. Raiders (+4000): 5%
6. Cowboys: 5%
7. Saints: 5%
8. Vikings (+2200): 4%
9. Patriots: 4%
10. Packers: 4%
Looking at these two sets of data, it’s noteworthy that the Patriots are #1 in terms of dollars bet, but are tied for the fourth-highest number of tickets. This could be a few factors, including just laying a ton of overall dollars on the Patriots per ticket (quality of bet amount versus quantity of tickets) due to the fact the Patriots are the top contenders, both odds-wise and perhaps on the field. The Patriots over-under win total is 11 wins for the season.
In comparing dollars to number of tickets, it’s fairly evident that the former has to do with the more “serious” wager in terms of who could realistically win because more money equates to more stock you have in your own opinion that that particular team will win.
When it comes to total number of tickets, these could be low money wagers in which you hope you bank on one of them.
For example, at +4000 and +2200, the Raiders and Vikings, respectively, may not have the greatest shots to win the Super Bowl, but perhaps you throw down $100 on the Raiders and get lucky somehow—that’s $4000 as opposed to just $550 from the Patriots.
Instead, on the Patriots, you’re bound to have more faith in them pulling it off, so maybe you place $1000 or more on them because you’re that confident.
Also, let’s be honest, there could just be a bountiful amount of anti-Patriots people as well.
|Super Bowl Odds 2020||DraftKings NJ||FanDuel PA||FoxBet|
|New England Patriots||700||700||750|
|Kansas City Chiefs||850||800||850|
|New Orleans Saints||900||900||900|
|Los Angeles Rams||1000||950||1000|
|Los Angeles Chargers||1500||1600||1300|
|Green Bay Packers||2000||1900||2000|
|San Francisco 49ers||4000||3000||3500|
|New York Jets||5000||6000||7000|
|New York Giants||6000||7000||7500|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||7500||6000||6600|
Lets Focus On Super Bowl ROI Picks
Cleveland Browns 15/1
The Browns have found themselves in a pretty interesting spot. While they do not have the best odds, they’re still in that region of being a realistic contender with odds worth wagering on. They’re in a difficult conference with team like the Patriots, Chiefs and even the Colts, but the Browns have a loaded squad, and both the dollars bet and the amount of tickets reflect that.
We essentially already covered this, but at +1500, the Browns are worthy of a wager. If they were in the NFC, their odds would be even better. If you ask me, the Super Bowl winner will more than likely come from the AFC. There are some interesting teams to watch for in the NFC, and sure, the volume in terms of possible teams that could win in the AFC and the NFC is irrelevant as it’s just one team from each conference in the Super Bowl, but the AFC just has the better teams and the Browns are one of them.
Adding names like Olivier Vernon to help with the pass rush, Odell Beckham Jr. to give sophomore quarterback Baker Mayfield more help, Kareem Hunt out of the backfield, drafting Greedy Williams to help with their man coverage in the passing game and so much more.
The Browns talent could pressure Tom Brady of the Patriots and take him off his game. The Browns have the firepower to compete in a shootout with Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs.
Believe it or not, the Browns could do it.
Los Angeles Chargers 20/1
Trying to avoid the chalk here in the Patriots and Chiefs, the Chargers are another intriguing team out of the AFC.
At odds of +2000, the Chargers have some stiff competition, especially in their own division with the Chiefs, but they are just a well put together team, especially in the trenches are drafting Jerry Tillery and adding Nasir Adderly to their secondary.
Could this finally be the time Philip Rivers shines? They’re worthy of a smaller wager as the competition in their own conference is so much that it is hard to pinpoint them as a definite favorite, but they have the team to create some hype in 2019.