NFL Consensus Picks

The National Football League season is so close! For months all we had was Super Bowl Odds to quench our betting thirst. We are now days away from Week 1 betting action, and it’s everyone’s favorite time of year. The NFL is back!

NFL Week 1 presents a full slate of 16 games, as every team is in action. Now, Week 1 lines have been out for awhile, so bets have poured in over the last few weeks giving us a nice snapshot of NFL Consensus Picks.

Some betting trends have certainly surfaced, so let’s go over them based on the reporting from William Hill Sportsbook.

 

Top NFL Public Bets By Ticket Volume

 

Chiefs (79%) vs Jaguars

The Chiefs (-4) are the most popular bet of Week 1 so far, with 79% of the tickets wagered. They only have 56% of the total dollars though, which means some heavy money has come in on the Jags +4, very interesting.

 

Ravens (77%) vs Dolphins

The Ravens (-5) currently have 77% of the total tickets of that game at William Hill, and a massive 87% of the total dollars. The Dolphins are projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL, so a -5 spread may be too low for the Ravens, who still could be a playoff team this season. Bettors seem to think so too, as that 87% is massive.

 

49ers (77%) vs Buccaneers

This game is currently a pick ‘em, which means you simply just need to pick the winner. The Niners currently have 77% of the total tickets and 87% of the total money. No one thinks Bruce Arians and the Bucs can pull out a victory against the Niners here.

 

Rams (74%) vs Panthers

74% of tickets have come in on the Rams (-3) to cover against the Panthers, but only 63% of the money is on Sean McVay’s football team. Some heavy bettors do like the Panthers in this one, but in light of Cam Newton’s foot injury, will that change?

 

Top Week 1 Games – Money Wagered Volume

 

Texans (91%) vs Saints

This is the most interesting stat of Week 1 so far, as just 61% of the tickets have come in on the Texans (+7), but a massive 91% of the money has come in on Houston. They are the only team to have over 90% of the money wagered.

What does this mean? There is a LOT of money, likely sharp money on the Texans. This will be an interesting number to keep an eye on leading up to Week 1, maybe that line drops below a touchdown. The difference of 30% between total percentage of tickets and total percentage of money is by far the largest in this game in Week 1.

Other games with big % of money on one team: Ravens 87%, 49ers 87%, Lions 88%, Bengals 87%, Giants 83%.

 

Parity on display in NFL Week 1

One reason why most people enjoy the NFL is the parity. Yes, the Patriots are usually there at the end but for the most part lots of teams can win or lose on any given Sunday.

These numbers show just that for Week 1, as bettors seem to believe that too.

 

Packers (59%) vs Bears

59% of the total tickets have come in on the Packers (+3), but 63% of the money has come on the Bears. A divisional rivalry at just a field goal spread has bettors spread out.

 

Falcons vs Vikings (59%)

59% of the total tickets have come in on the Vikings (-4), but 65% of the money has come in on the Falcons. This could be a very evenly-matched game between two of the NFC’s elite, which makes sense as to why the difference in tickets against money.

 

Steelers (52%) vs Patriots

52% of the total tickets have come in on the Steelers (+6), which is very close. That is the closest margin of any NFL Week 1 game so far. 60% of the money has come in on the Patriots though, so more confident bettors think the Pats will cover that spread, or a large amount of money has come in on the Pats.

 

Browns (52%) vs Titans

The closest split in terms of % of dollars wagered is Browns and Titans, as the Browns (-5.5) own just 52% of the dollars wagered, and just 54% of the tickets. If both sides stay at a price of -110, this is good news for the book as both sides will have relatively even money before the vig.